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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.64+2.76vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.38+2.24vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College0.92+2.64vs Predicted
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4McGill University-0.01+4.44vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University0.39+2.31vs Predicted
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6Fairfield University0.69+0.42vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.96-1.71vs Predicted
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8Boston University0.60-1.51vs Predicted
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9Brown University0.58-2.32vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.34-2.57vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.29+0.73vs Predicted
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12Bates College-0.50-2.26vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.47-3.41vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-1.67-1.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.76Brown University1.640.2%1st Place
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4.24University of Rhode Island1.380.2%1st Place
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5.64Connecticut College0.920.1%1st Place
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8.44McGill University-0.010.0%1st Place
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7.31Northeastern University0.390.0%1st Place
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6.42Fairfield University0.690.1%1st Place
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5.29Connecticut College0.960.1%1st Place
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6.49Boston University0.600.1%1st Place
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6.68Brown University0.580.1%1st Place
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7.43Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.340.1%1st Place
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11.73Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.290.0%1st Place
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9.74Bates College-0.500.0%1st Place
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9.59Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
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12.25Middlebury College-1.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Adam | 21.4% | 19.0% | 15.1% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Ingalls | 16.2% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 9.8% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Mikhail Lavrenov | 2.8% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 3.0% |
| Samuel Rooks | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Nolan Cooper | 7.2% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 12.1% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| John Cabell | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Luke Kenahan | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Oliver Browne | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 13.6% | 24.0% | 32.3% |
| Harrison Nash | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 7.7% |
| Caleb Burt | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 16.0% | 15.8% | 6.6% |
| Talia Trigg | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 20.3% | 46.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.