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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.34+6.22vs Predicted
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2Brown University0.58+4.43vs Predicted
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3Fairfield University0.69+3.27vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.38+0.40vs Predicted
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5McGill University-0.01+3.54vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College0.92-0.30vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.96-1.69vs Predicted
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8Boston University0.60-1.42vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.64-5.13vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University0.39-2.66vs Predicted
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11Middlebury College-1.67+1.40vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.47-2.29vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.29-1.46vs Predicted
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14Bates College-0.50-4.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.22Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.340.1%1st Place
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6.43Brown University0.580.1%1st Place
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6.27Fairfield University0.690.1%1st Place
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4.4University of Rhode Island1.380.1%1st Place
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8.54McGill University-0.010.0%1st Place
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5.7Connecticut College0.920.1%1st Place
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5.31Connecticut College0.960.1%1st Place
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6.58Boston University0.600.1%1st Place
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3.87Brown University1.640.2%1st Place
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7.34Northeastern University0.390.1%1st Place
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12.4Middlebury College-1.670.0%1st Place
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9.71Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
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11.54Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.290.0%1st Place
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9.67Bates College-0.500.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kenahan | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Nolan Cooper | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Sam Ingalls | 14.9% | 16.1% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mikhail Lavrenov | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 8.0% | 3.3% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 11.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| John Cabell | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Grant Adam | 19.0% | 18.3% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rooks | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Talia Trigg | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 20.0% | 49.5% |
| Caleb Burt | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 8.0% |
| Oliver Browne | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 27.5% | 28.4% |
| Harrison Nash | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 18.2% | 15.3% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.