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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.64+2.74vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.47+7.45vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College0.96+2.53vs Predicted
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4Brown University0.58+2.69vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.38-0.47vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.60+0.68vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.92-1.61vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.34-0.70vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.29+2.66vs Predicted
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10McGill University-0.01-1.48vs Predicted
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11Bates College-0.50-1.17vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University0.69-5.66vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.39-5.89vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-1.67-1.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.74Brown University1.640.2%1st Place
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9.45Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.470.0%1st Place
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5.53Connecticut College0.960.1%1st Place
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6.69Brown University0.580.1%1st Place
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4.53University of Rhode Island1.380.1%1st Place
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6.68Boston University0.600.1%1st Place
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5.39Connecticut College0.920.1%1st Place
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7.3Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.340.1%1st Place
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11.66Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.290.0%1st Place
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8.52McGill University-0.010.0%1st Place
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9.83Bates College-0.500.0%1st Place
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6.34Fairfield University0.690.1%1st Place
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7.11Northeastern University0.390.1%1st Place
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12.24Middlebury College-1.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Adam | 23.0% | 17.3% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Caleb Burt | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 17.9% | 12.8% | 6.9% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 10.1% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Sam Ingalls | 13.8% | 13.6% | 15.5% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Cabell | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Luke Kenahan | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| Oliver Browne | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 13.8% | 25.6% | 31.6% |
| Mikhail Lavrenov | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 2.6% |
| Harrison Nash | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 15.8% | 15.0% | 9.7% |
| Nolan Cooper | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Samuel Rooks | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Talia Trigg | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 22.5% | 45.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.