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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College0.36+4.52vs Predicted
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2Brown University0.64+2.67vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University-0.23+4.34vs Predicted
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4Boston University0.16+2.21vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island-0.56+3.46vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.37-2.80vs Predicted
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7McGill University-0.70+1.49vs Predicted
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8Brown University0.78-3.50vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University-0.57-0.54vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.90-0.55vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.21-3.65vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.39-1.24vs Predicted
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13Bates College-1.17-2.97vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-1.37-3.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.52Connecticut College0.360.1%1st Place
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4.67Brown University0.640.1%1st Place
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7.34Northeastern University-0.230.1%1st Place
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6.21Boston University0.160.1%1st Place
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8.46University of Rhode Island-0.560.0%1st Place
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3.2Connecticut College1.370.3%1st Place
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8.49McGill University-0.700.0%1st Place
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4.5Brown University0.780.2%1st Place
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8.46Fairfield University-0.570.0%1st Place
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9.45Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.900.0%1st Place
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7.35Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.210.1%1st Place
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10.76Massachusetts Maritime Academy-1.390.0%1st Place
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10.03Bates College-1.170.0%1st Place
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10.58Middlebury College-1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilly Saffer | 9.3% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Keller Morrison | 14.0% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Tyler Meadows | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| Richard Kalich | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Nolan Wiggins | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% |
| Matias Martin | 25.3% | 21.9% | 17.0% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Offredi | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 5.9% |
| Charles Case | 15.3% | 15.4% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Cronin | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 7.3% | 5.1% |
| cole capizzo | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 12.2% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| Joseph Gedraitis | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 25.6% |
| Matthew Straub | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 17.2% |
| William Procter | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 18.7% | 21.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.