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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+2.42vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.15+4.13vs Predicted
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3Princeton University-0.73+7.55vs Predicted
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4Hampton University1.77+0.61vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University1.65-0.21vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University2.01-1.95vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.08-0.81vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-2.96vs Predicted
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9Monmouth University-0.52+1.04vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech-0.09-0.90vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.85-4.28vs Predicted
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12University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.50-0.28vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.21-4.37vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech-0.09-4.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.2%1st Place
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6.13Old Dominion University1.150.1%1st Place
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10.55Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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4.61Hampton University1.770.1%1st Place
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4.79North Carolina State University1.650.1%1st Place
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4.05North Carolina State University2.010.2%1st Place
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6.19Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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5.04U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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10.04Monmouth University-0.520.0%1st Place
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9.1Virginia Tech-0.090.0%1st Place
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6.72Christopher Newport University0.850.0%1st Place
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11.72University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.500.0%1st Place
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8.63Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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9.1Virginia Tech-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landon Cormie | 22.8% | 18.6% | 16.6% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Riley | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 7.9% | 12.1% | 19.8% | 25.3% | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 12.8% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Sowa | 12.1% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larson | 15.8% | 17.2% | 13.6% | 15.3% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 10.0% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Cashin | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 12.3% | 18.5% | 22.7% | 16.3% | 0.0% |
| Luke Manternach | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 18.3% | 15.4% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sam Woodley | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 10.9% | 19.7% | 52.7% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 16.6% | 16.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Manternach | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 18.3% | 15.4% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.