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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University2.01+3.05vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.32+1.41vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.65+1.93vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University1.08+2.31vs Predicted
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5Hampton University1.77-0.48vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-1.03vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.15-1.01vs Predicted
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8Washington College0.21+0.39vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.85-2.10vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.73+0.39vs Predicted
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11University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.50+0.67vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-0.09-2.75vs Predicted
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13Monmouth University-0.52-2.77vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech-0.09-4.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.05North Carolina State University2.010.2%1st Place
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3.41St. Mary's College of Maryland2.320.2%1st Place
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4.93North Carolina State University1.650.1%1st Place
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6.31Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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4.52Hampton University1.770.1%1st Place
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4.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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5.99Old Dominion University1.150.1%1st Place
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8.39Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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6.9Christopher Newport University0.850.1%1st Place
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10.39Princeton University-0.730.0%1st Place
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11.67University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.500.0%1st Place
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9.25Virginia Tech-0.090.0%1st Place
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10.23Monmouth University-0.520.0%1st Place
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9.25Virginia Tech-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 16.7% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Landon Cormie | 23.1% | 19.2% | 15.9% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Sowa | 10.1% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 13.3% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 10.7% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Riley | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 16.1% | 15.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Atherton | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 14.7% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| William Roberts | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 17.8% | 24.3% | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| Sam Woodley | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 20.0% | 50.3% | 0.0% |
| Luke Manternach | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 15.7% | 18.2% | 14.8% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Cashin | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 17.5% | 24.4% | 16.6% | 0.0% |
| Luke Manternach | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 15.7% | 18.2% | 14.8% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.