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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hampton University0.81+4.99vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.07+3.31vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.37+4.20vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.48+0.22vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.79+0.91vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-0.83vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.51-0.31vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.81-2.09vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.31-4.32vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.18-2.40vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.18-3.40vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.15-3.65vs Predicted
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13University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.70-1.75vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University-3.44-1.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.99Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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5.31Old Dominion University1.070.1%1st Place
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7.2Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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4.22North Carolina State University1.480.2%1st Place
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5.91Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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5.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.1%1st Place
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6.69Washington College0.510.1%1st Place
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5.91St. Mary's College of Maryland0.810.1%1st Place
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4.68North Carolina State University1.310.1%1st Place
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7.6Virginia Tech0.180.1%1st Place
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7.6Virginia Tech0.180.1%1st Place
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8.35Princeton University-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.25University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.700.0%1st Place
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12.71Monmouth University-3.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Palamara | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Milo Miller | 10.4% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Robert Chase | 17.4% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 10.4% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Bounds | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Usher | 13.9% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 6.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 6.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Advik Eswaran | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 15.3% | 21.1% | 10.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Erin Winters | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 10.1% | 59.2% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Abigail Eck | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 11.6% | 84.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.