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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.31+3.58vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+3.16vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.48+1.17vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.81+1.90vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.79+0.78vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.81-0.23vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech0.18+0.37vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.07-2.93vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.51-2.28vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.37-3.06vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.18-3.63vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.87-2.31vs Predicted
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13University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.70-1.82vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University-3.44-1.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58North Carolina State University1.310.1%1st Place
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5.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.1%1st Place
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4.17North Carolina State University1.480.2%1st Place
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5.9Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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5.78Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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5.77St. Mary's College of Maryland0.810.1%1st Place
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7.37Virginia Tech0.180.1%1st Place
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5.07Old Dominion University1.070.1%1st Place
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6.72Washington College0.510.1%1st Place
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6.94Christopher Newport University0.370.1%1st Place
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7.37Virginia Tech0.180.1%1st Place
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9.69Princeton University-0.870.0%1st Place
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11.18University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.700.0%1st Place
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12.67Monmouth University-3.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Usher | 15.0% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 10.7% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Chase | 16.3% | 15.9% | 15.1% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Bounds | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 5.9% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Milo Miller | 11.1% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 5.9% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 3.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 12.5% | 31.4% | 22.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Erin Winters | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 13.6% | 54.5% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Abigail Eck | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 10.1% | 83.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.