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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.31+3.42vs Predicted
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2Hampton University0.81+3.65vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University1.48+1.01vs Predicted
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4Washington College0.51+2.45vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.07-0.09vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.81-0.42vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.79-1.35vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-3.08vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.87+0.55vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.18-2.82vs Predicted
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11Virginia Tech0.18-3.82vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University-0.66-2.97vs Predicted
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13University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.70-1.98vs Predicted
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14Monmouth University-3.44-1.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.42North Carolina State University1.310.2%1st Place
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5.65Hampton University0.810.1%1st Place
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4.01North Carolina State University1.480.2%1st Place
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6.45Washington College0.510.1%1st Place
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4.91Old Dominion University1.070.1%1st Place
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5.58St. Mary's College of Maryland0.810.1%1st Place
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5.65Christopher Newport University0.790.1%1st Place
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4.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.1%1st Place
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9.55Princeton University-0.870.0%1st Place
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7.18Virginia Tech0.180.1%1st Place
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7.18Virginia Tech0.180.1%1st Place
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9.03Christopher Newport University-0.660.0%1st Place
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11.02University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.700.0%1st Place
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12.65Monmouth University-3.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Usher | 15.3% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 9.2% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Chase | 17.7% | 16.0% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Milo Miller | 12.3% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Bounds | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 11.5% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lorenzen | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 28.6% | 21.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 5.4% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Young | 5.4% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sebastian Beavers | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 19.5% | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Erin Winters | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 9.0% | 16.6% | 46.9% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| Abigail Eck | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 10.3% | 82.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.