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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.38+3.11vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.58+1.62vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+0.89vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.64+10.28vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+4.20vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.64+2.46vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.48-1.46vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands0.42+1.43vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy1.75-4.25vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.38-0.60vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy0.93-3.73vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.24+3.37vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.66+0.36vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University0.59-5.02vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-3.78vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University0.17-5.83vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-1.80+0.02vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University0.64-9.56vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-2.34-0.86vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-1.71-3.39vs Predicted
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22-2.08-3.56vs Predicted
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23University of California at Los Angeles-2.43-3.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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3.62Stanford University2.580.2%1st Place
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3.89University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.2%1st Place
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14.28University of California at Berkeley-0.640.0%1st Place
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10.2University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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9.46University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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6.54University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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10.43California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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5.75California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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10.4University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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8.27California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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16.37Arizona State University-1.240.0%1st Place
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14.36University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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9.98Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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12.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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11.17San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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18.02San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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9.44Arizona State University0.640.0%1st Place
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19.14San Diego State University-2.340.0%1st Place
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17.61University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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18.44-2.080.0%1st Place
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19.27University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Anderson | 15.9% | 16.1% | 15.5% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Fisher | 22.0% | 19.0% | 14.4% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 17.0% | 17.9% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lisle | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| George Soliman | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 3.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Hirz | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 14.9% | 16.0% | 12.5% |
| Juan Casal | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Riley Benjaminson | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 19.4% | 25.7% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 16.4% | 13.4% | 9.8% |
| Brent Lin | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 19.7% | 18.0% |
| Katherine Smith | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 18.9% | 30.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.