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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.38+3.08vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.58+1.61vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.48+3.80vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.64+5.55vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+0.78vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.93+2.50vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University0.59+2.59vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-4.12vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.64+0.53vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.38+0.43vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands0.42-0.80vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-1.90vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.24+2.23vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-0.66-0.43vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University0.17-4.40vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-5.19vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley-0.64-3.65vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-2.43+0.34vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-2.34-0.81vs Predicted
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21San Diego State University-1.80-3.10vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-1.71-4.49vs Predicted
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23California State University Channel Islands-2.08-4.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.08University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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3.61Stanford University2.580.2%1st Place
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6.8University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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9.55Arizona State University0.640.0%1st Place
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5.78California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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8.5California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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9.59Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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3.88University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.2%1st Place
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9.53University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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10.43University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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10.2California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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10.1University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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16.23Arizona State University-1.240.0%1st Place
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14.57University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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11.6San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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11.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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14.35University of California at Berkeley-0.640.0%1st Place
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19.34University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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19.19San Diego State University-2.340.0%1st Place
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17.9San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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17.51University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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18.48California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Anderson | 17.5% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Fisher | 21.4% | 18.9% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 19.7% | 16.9% | 14.7% | 15.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Hirz | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 2.4% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Ethan Lisle | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Katherine Smith | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 20.7% | 29.9% |
| Riley Benjaminson | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 18.9% | 27.4% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 17.8% | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 9.9% |
| Brent Lin | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 20.5% | 16.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.