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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.38+3.08vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.58+1.63vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+2.90vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.64+5.54vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.64+4.57vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.59+3.71vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.48-0.56vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-4.13vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.38+1.51vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy0.93-1.63vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.24+5.16vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.66+2.43vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-2.84vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-1.83vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University0.17-4.41vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley-0.64-2.86vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-2.43+1.53vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands0.42-8.75vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-1.71-2.50vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands-2.08-2.39vs Predicted
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22San Diego State University-2.34-2.91vs Predicted
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23San Diego State University-1.80-5.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.08University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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3.63Stanford University2.580.2%1st Place
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5.9California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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9.54University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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9.57Arizona State University0.640.0%1st Place
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9.71Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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6.44University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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3.87University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.2%1st Place
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10.51University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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8.37California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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16.16Arizona State University-1.240.0%1st Place
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14.43University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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10.16University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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12.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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11.59San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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14.14University of California at Berkeley-0.640.0%1st Place
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19.53University of California at Los Angeles-2.430.0%1st Place
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10.25California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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17.5University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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18.61California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
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19.09San Diego State University-2.340.0%1st Place
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17.77San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Anderson | 16.0% | 16.6% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Fisher | 21.0% | 18.1% | 16.7% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 19.0% | 18.5% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Hirz | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 2.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| George Soliman | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Lisle | 1.6% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Katherine Smith | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 20.3% | 32.5% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 8.2% |
| Brent Lin | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 18.2% | 17.1% | 18.4% |
| Riley Benjaminson | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 19.9% | 28.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 15.9% | 16.8% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.