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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands0.42+9.59vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.38+2.16vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.58+0.74vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.39+3.08vs Predicted
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5University of Washington-0.41+8.53vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.59+3.92vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University0.64+2.46vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy1.75-1.99vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California1.67-3.84vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy0.93-2.49vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.64+2.25vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-0.89vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-3.78vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-10.99vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-0.66-1.27vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University0.17-5.72vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-1.24-1.40vs Predicted
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19San Diego State University-1.80-1.02vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-3.25vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-1.71-3.13vs Predicted
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22San Diego State University-2.34-2.70vs Predicted
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23California State University Channel Islands-2.08-4.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.59California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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4.16University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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3.74Stanford University2.580.2%1st Place
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7.08University of Southern California1.390.1%1st Place
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13.53University of Washington-0.410.0%1st Place
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9.92Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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9.46Arizona State University0.640.0%1st Place
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6.01California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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6.16University of Southern California1.670.1%1st Place
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8.51California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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14.25University of California at Berkeley-0.640.0%1st Place
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12.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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10.22University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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4.01University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.2%1st Place
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14.73University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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11.28San Diego State University0.170.0%1st Place
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16.6Arizona State University-1.240.0%1st Place
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17.98San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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16.75University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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17.87University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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19.3San Diego State University-2.340.0%1st Place
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18.75California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Maggard | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 17.4% | 16.0% | 14.9% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophie Fisher | 19.2% | 18.3% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jan Matteo Bassi | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sammy Farkas | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 10.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Davis Winsor | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Downey | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lisle | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 17.0% | 15.7% | 17.9% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gavin Hirz | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 6.2% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 15.7% | 18.0% | 13.4% |
| Conrad Kistler | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 6.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 14.6% | 14.6% | 14.3% | 14.5% |
| Riley Benjaminson | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 19.4% | 34.5% |
| Brent Lin | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 20.1% | 22.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.