Race 1A

pen-bay-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Bradley Milliken 7.2% 5.6% 7.2% 7.6% 5.9% 8.2% 6.9% 8.4% 8.9% 9.1% 8.0% 6.9% 5.9% 2.8% 1.4%
Ian Towill 6.4% 8.5% 8.4% 8.7% 7.5% 8.8% 9.5% 8.4% 8.9% 7.9% 6.9% 4.6% 4.0% 1.3% 0.2%
Bernie Roesler 13.5% 12.7% 12.2% 11.2% 11.1% 8.5% 9.4% 6.9% 5.9% 3.8% 2.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Pellegrini 17.7% 16.9% 14.7% 10.4% 11.1% 6.4% 8.1% 6.2% 3.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Willem Sandberg 11.0% 12.5% 9.8% 9.7% 11.1% 10.3% 9.4% 7.5% 5.3% 5.0% 4.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Benjamin Bainbridge 12.3% 11.0% 11.1% 11.4% 11.6% 9.8% 8.1% 8.3% 5.7% 4.9% 2.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Chanel Miller 7.4% 7.1% 7.9% 7.7% 8.1% 8.5% 10.9% 7.6% 8.0% 8.4% 6.9% 5.3% 4.1% 1.7% 0.4%
Jeff Goodrich 6.0% 7.0% 7.0% 8.3% 6.2% 8.1% 8.5% 7.0% 8.8% 10.1% 8.1% 7.0% 4.1% 2.8% 1.0%
Justin Marks 1.5% 1.4% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 3.1% 3.4% 4.5% 6.9% 6.8% 9.9% 12.1% 13.9% 17.2% 12.2%
Steven Pelissier 4.7% 3.3% 5.2% 5.8% 5.5% 6.9% 5.8% 8.1% 9.7% 9.8% 9.9% 9.3% 8.2% 5.5% 2.3%
Conor Lodge 5.7% 7.0% 6.0% 6.9% 7.6% 8.2% 7.4% 7.8% 9.8% 8.2% 8.2% 6.7% 5.2% 3.8% 1.5%
Christopher Hulse 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 2.2% 2.4% 3.3% 4.7% 4.2% 7.5% 8.0% 11.1% 14.6% 19.3% 16.6%
Daniel Barry 1.0% 2.2% 1.4% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% 3.1% 4.6% 4.3% 5.2% 5.7% 12.1% 15.5% 19.0% 18.2%
David Pierce 3.0% 2.7% 4.4% 4.8% 5.2% 6.4% 4.8% 6.4% 8.3% 7.6% 11.8% 11.7% 10.5% 8.9% 3.5%
Matthew Connolly 0.9% 0.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 3.6% 2.0% 3.0% 5.2% 6.3% 11.9% 16.6% 42.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.