← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.77+3.11vs Predicted
-
2University of Hawaii1.53+2.80vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California1.47+1.96vs Predicted
-
4California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+0.95vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Irvine-0.01+5.18vs Predicted
-
6Stanford University1.05+0.09vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+0.87vs Predicted
-
8University of Southern California-0.10+2.61vs Predicted
-
9California State University Channel Islands-0.84+4.51vs Predicted
-
10California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07+0.33vs Predicted
-
11Western Washington University0.08-1.01vs Predicted
-
12University of Washington-0.48+0.04vs Predicted
-
13Arizona State University-0.75+0.29vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Berkeley-1.25+0.90vs Predicted
-
15San Diego State University-0.19-3.92vs Predicted
-
16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02-5.70vs Predicted
-
17Arizona State University-1.16-2.15vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Los Angeles-1.74-0.88vs Predicted
-
19Arizona State University-1.79-2.21vs Predicted
-
20University of California at San Diego-2.62-0.52vs Predicted
-
21San Diego State University-2.04-3.12vs Predicted
-
22California State University Channel Islands-2.78-2.12vs Predicted
-
23San Diego State University-3.25-2.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.11University of California at Santa Barbara1.770.2%1st Place
-
4.8University of Hawaii1.530.1%1st Place
-
4.96University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
-
4.95California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.1%1st Place
-
10.18University of California at Irvine-0.010.0%1st Place
-
6.09Stanford University1.050.1%1st Place
-
7.87University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.1%1st Place
-
10.61University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
-
13.51California State University Channel Islands-0.840.0%1st Place
-
10.33California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.0%1st Place
-
9.99Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
-
12.04University of Washington-0.480.0%1st Place
-
13.29Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
-
14.9University of California at Berkeley-1.250.0%1st Place
-
11.08San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
-
10.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.0%1st Place
-
14.85Arizona State University-1.160.0%1st Place
-
17.12University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
-
16.79Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
-
19.48University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
-
17.88San Diego State University-2.040.0%1st Place
-
19.88California State University Channel Islands-2.780.0%1st Place
-
21.0San Diego State University-3.250.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Seawards | 17.7% | 17.1% | 15.0% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trey Summers | 13.9% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 13.2% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 14.0% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Leddy | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Baldwin | 8.9% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Stadtherr | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Sam Jennings | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jaden Unruh | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Emerson Marquez | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Florence Duff | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Down | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Liam Williams | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 8.3% | 2.9% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 4.0% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 16.8% | 20.0% | 18.2% |
| Ryan Giorgianni | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 5.7% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 14.6% | 21.1% | 25.6% |
| Cal Dunstan | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 14.2% | 20.7% | 41.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.