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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.32+2.41vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.19+3.91vs Predicted
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3Fordham University0.99+3.57vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.81+3.25vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+0.96vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.37+2.46vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.37-3.79vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.88-3.61vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+0.76vs Predicted
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10George Washington University-0.12-0.20vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-4.26vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.92-0.54vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.02-3.68vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.73-1.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.41Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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5.91U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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6.57Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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7.25Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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5.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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8.46Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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3.21Georgetown University2.370.3%1st Place
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4.39University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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9.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.8George Washington University-0.120.0%1st Place
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6.74St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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11.46Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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9.32SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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12.75Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 22.5% | 20.3% | 17.5% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 6.4% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Laura Smith | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 6.4% | 1.7% |
| Kelly Bates | 25.8% | 18.8% | 16.5% | 13.9% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 13.8% | 14.5% | 15.1% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 15.3% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 5.3% |
| Eva Wieting | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 7.5% |
| Lina Carper | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 28.8% | 21.9% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 16.2% | 10.4% | 4.9% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 18.4% | 57.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.