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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University0.99+5.64vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University0.81+4.94vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+0.35vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.37-0.70vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.19+1.27vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.88-1.54vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+2.53vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-2.09vs Predicted
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9Washington College-1.73+3.82vs Predicted
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10George Washington University-0.12-0.22vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-4.19vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.92-0.48vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.37-4.67vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.02-4.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.64Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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6.94Old Dominion University0.810.1%1st Place
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3.35Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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3.3Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.27U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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4.46University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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9.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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5.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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12.82Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
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9.78George Washington University-0.120.0%1st Place
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6.81St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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11.52Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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8.33Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.34SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Sophia Devling | 24.1% | 19.1% | 15.8% | 13.9% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 22.8% | 22.1% | 15.9% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 5.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Madeleine Rice | 13.4% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 15.6% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 16.9% | 14.1% | 4.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 17.8% | 61.3% |
| Eva Wieting | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 16.5% | 14.9% | 5.8% |
| Lina Carper | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 16.7% | 27.5% | 22.2% |
| Laura Smith | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 1.4% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 16.8% | 11.2% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.