← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.98vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.32+1.37vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University2.37+0.34vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+1.92vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University0.81+2.26vs Predicted
-
6Christopher Newport University0.37+2.53vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University0.99-0.53vs Predicted
-
8George Washington University-0.12+1.62vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Naval Academy1.19-2.77vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-3.18vs Predicted
-
11Princeton University-0.92+0.56vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-2.20vs Predicted
-
13Washington College-1.73-0.27vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College-0.02-4.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.98University of Pennsylvania2.060.2%1st Place
-
3.37Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
-
3.34Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
-
5.92Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
-
7.26Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
-
8.53Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
-
6.47Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
-
9.62George Washington University-0.120.0%1st Place
-
6.23U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
-
6.82St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
-
11.56Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
-
9.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
-
12.73Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
-
9.37SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 15.9% | 18.6% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 23.3% | 17.9% | 16.9% | 15.5% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 23.7% | 19.0% | 16.5% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.8% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Laura Smith | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 2.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Eva Wieting | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 15.6% | 5.5% |
| Ava Farley | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Lina Carper | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 15.7% | 30.3% | 21.9% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 6.7% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 9.5% | 16.1% | 58.6% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 17.7% | 10.9% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.