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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.98vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.37+1.29vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+0.45vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.37+4.41vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.19+1.27vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.81+1.32vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-1.33vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-1.33vs Predicted
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9George Washington University-0.12+0.69vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.92+1.57vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.99-4.21vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-2.19vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.02-3.67vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.73-1.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.98University of Pennsylvania2.060.2%1st Place
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3.29Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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3.45Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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8.41Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.27U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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7.32Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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5.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.67St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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9.69George Washington University-0.120.0%1st Place
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11.57Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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6.79Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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9.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.33SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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12.76Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 16.6% | 17.3% | 15.4% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 22.6% | 19.4% | 19.1% | 14.6% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 21.4% | 20.2% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 1.3% |
| Ava Farley | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 8.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 5.8% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Eva Wieting | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 16.3% | 13.9% | 4.7% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 27.3% | 24.6% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 16.4% | 6.0% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 4.0% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 9.5% | 17.0% | 58.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.