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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+2.32vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.37+6.23vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.06+0.95vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+1.90vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.99+1.84vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.81+1.31vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College-0.02+2.24vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-1.24vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.19-2.77vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.32-6.54vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.17vs Predicted
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12George Washington University-0.12-2.27vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.92-1.57vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.73-1.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.32Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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8.23Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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3.95University of Pennsylvania2.060.2%1st Place
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5.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.84Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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7.31Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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9.24SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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6.76St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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6.23U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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3.46Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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9.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.73George Washington University-0.120.0%1st Place
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11.43Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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12.76Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 23.6% | 21.7% | 15.4% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 1.9% |
| Sofia Segalla | 17.1% | 17.4% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 15.8% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 3.8% |
| Lina Carper | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Ava Farley | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 19.9% | 19.9% | 17.9% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 6.4% |
| Eva Wieting | 1.6% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 13.3% | 14.9% | 14.8% | 13.9% | 6.0% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 17.1% | 28.8% | 21.7% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 9.4% | 16.4% | 58.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.