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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.32+2.46vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+1.83vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.19+3.14vs Predicted
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4George Washington University-0.12+5.73vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+4.83vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+0.06vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.37+1.13vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.99-1.38vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.37-5.56vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University0.81-2.74vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-4.18vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.92-0.47vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.02-3.60vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.73-1.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.46Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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3.83University of Pennsylvania2.060.2%1st Place
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6.14U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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9.73George Washington University-0.120.0%1st Place
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9.83U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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6.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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8.13Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.62Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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3.44Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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7.26Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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6.82St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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11.53Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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9.4SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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12.75Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 22.0% | 21.1% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 16.9% | 17.9% | 16.3% | 14.8% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Eva Wieting | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 18.0% | 13.4% | 6.5% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 16.2% | 15.8% | 6.6% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Kelly Bates | 22.2% | 18.2% | 17.8% | 13.9% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.7% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 15.5% | 29.2% | 21.5% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 4.6% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 17.3% | 57.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.