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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University0.99+5.69vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.32+1.37vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.06+0.99vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.01+2.72vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.37-1.53vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+0.90vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.19-1.03vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-2.00vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.02+0.52vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.37-1.41vs Predicted
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11George Washington University-0.12-1.22vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-2.15vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.73-0.26vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.92-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.69Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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3.37Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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3.99University of Pennsylvania2.060.2%1st Place
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6.72Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
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3.47Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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5.97U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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6.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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9.52SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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8.59Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.78George Washington University-0.120.0%1st Place
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9.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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12.74Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
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11.43Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.9% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Sophia Devling | 22.3% | 20.6% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 16.8% | 15.9% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 4.6% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 19.3% | 20.3% | 17.9% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Ava Farley | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 14.9% | 12.1% | 4.8% |
| Laura Smith | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% |
| Eva Wieting | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 5.7% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 16.3% | 14.4% | 7.1% |
| Laurel Krause | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 59.7% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 15.7% | 29.3% | 20.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.