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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.01vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.32+1.35vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+6.75vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.37+4.46vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.99+1.84vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+0.94vs Predicted
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7Princeton University-0.92+4.28vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.19-1.83vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.37-5.55vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.01-3.22vs Predicted
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11George Washington University-0.12-1.20vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.02-2.51vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-7.11vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.73-1.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.01University of Pennsylvania2.060.2%1st Place
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3.35Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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9.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.46Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.84Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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6.94St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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11.28Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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6.17U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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3.45Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.78Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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9.8George Washington University-0.120.0%1st Place
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9.49SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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5.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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12.79Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 17.0% | 18.2% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 22.2% | 19.7% | 17.7% | 15.3% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 17.6% | 16.1% | 5.7% |
| Laura Smith | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 6.0% | 1.7% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Lina Carper | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 15.2% | 25.9% | 21.2% |
| Ava Farley | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 21.4% | 17.9% | 19.8% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Eva Wieting | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 7.0% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 15.5% | 11.3% | 5.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 9.3% | 17.2% | 58.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.