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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.01vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.37+1.28vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+0.47vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.01+2.71vs Predicted
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5George Washington University-0.12+4.78vs Predicted
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6Fordham University0.99+0.88vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+2.53vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.02+1.42vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.92+2.57vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-3.96vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-4.10vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy1.19-5.74vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.37-4.63vs Predicted
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14Washington College-1.73-1.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.01University of Pennsylvania2.060.2%1st Place
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3.28Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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3.47Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.71Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
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9.78George Washington University-0.120.0%1st Place
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6.88Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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9.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.42SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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11.57Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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6.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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6.26U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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8.37Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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12.78Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 17.6% | 15.2% | 16.8% | 14.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 23.1% | 20.2% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 21.5% | 20.1% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan Geith | 4.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Eva Wieting | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 5.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Katherine Mason | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 14.8% | 16.9% | 12.3% | 5.5% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 14.2% | 15.5% | 12.0% | 5.6% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 16.9% | 29.5% | 22.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Ava Farley | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 1.8% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 17.9% | 58.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.