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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.00vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.37+6.30vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+2.96vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.99+2.75vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.32-1.45vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+3.92vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.19-0.99vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.01-1.32vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-2.10vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.37-6.58vs Predicted
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11George Washington University-0.12-1.23vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.02-2.46vs Predicted
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13Washington College-1.73-0.23vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.92-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.0University of Pennsylvania2.060.2%1st Place
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8.3Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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5.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.75Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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3.55Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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9.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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6.01U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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6.68Old Dominion University1.010.1%1st Place
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6.9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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3.42Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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9.77George Washington University-0.120.0%1st Place
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9.54SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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12.77Washington College-1.730.0%1st Place
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11.43Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 17.4% | 16.8% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.0% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 1.5% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 19.1% | 20.4% | 16.2% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 13.8% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 6.6% |
| Ava Farley | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Megan Geith | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 6.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Kelly Bates | 22.6% | 19.2% | 17.2% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Wieting | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 13.6% | 5.9% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 16.6% | 11.7% | 4.8% |
| Laurel Krause | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 15.9% | 60.8% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 15.5% | 30.0% | 19.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.