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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+3.70vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.42+6.88vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.18+0.96vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.09+3.18vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.73+0.33vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.39+0.17vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.83+0.97vs Predicted
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8Olin College of Engineering0.22+5.34vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.06-2.00vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.41+2.93vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.07-0.23vs Predicted
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12Boston College1.97-4.18vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-4.42vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.87-3.01vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.27-0.73vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.07-4.00vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University0.97-3.94vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy-0.82-1.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.7Yale University2.8515.5%1st Place
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8.88University of Rhode Island1.424.2%1st Place
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3.96Harvard University3.1819.6%1st Place
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7.18Roger Williams University2.097.4%1st Place
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5.33Brown University2.7312.4%1st Place
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6.17Dartmouth College2.398.9%1st Place
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7.97Tufts University1.835.1%1st Place
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13.34Olin College of Engineering0.221.2%1st Place
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7.0Bowdoin College2.066.2%1st Place
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12.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.411.4%1st Place
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10.77Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
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7.82Boston College1.975.5%1st Place
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8.58Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.2%1st Place
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10.99University of Vermont0.871.9%1st Place
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14.27Connecticut College0.270.6%1st Place
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12.0Boston University1.071.8%1st Place
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13.06Salve Regina University0.971.6%1st Place
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16.07Maine Maritime Academy-0.820.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 15.5% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 19.6% | 17.5% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.4% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| James Jagielski | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 13.8% | 15.4% | 9.4% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Julian Henderson | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 7.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Peter Joslin | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 1.2% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 18.9% | 17.9% |
| Porter Bell | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 3.8% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 7.8% |
| Isaac Thompson | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 15.8% | 50.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.