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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University2.12+3.95vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.38+5.11vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.35+1.39vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.92+4.49vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan0.11+5.36vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.93-0.62vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.08+0.85vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-1.59vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.24-4.31vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-3.51vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.96-2.84vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.54-5.30vs Predicted
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13Amherst College0.36-2.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.95Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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7.11Roger Williams University1.380.1%1st Place
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4.39SUNY Maritime College2.350.2%1st Place
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8.49Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
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10.36University of Michigan0.110.0%1st Place
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5.38Tufts University1.930.1%1st Place
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7.85University of Vermont1.080.1%1st Place
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6.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.1%1st Place
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4.69University of Rhode Island2.240.1%1st Place
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6.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.1%1st Place
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8.16Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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6.7Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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10.03Amherst College0.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Priebe | 13.1% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Luke Hosek | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 16.1% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 10.7% |
| Ted Sherman | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 18.4% | 36.0% |
| Clark Morris | 10.7% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Potter | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 6.3% |
| Peter McGonagle | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Declan Botwinick | 14.6% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Lars Osell | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 8.9% |
| Everett Botwinick | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| Madison Suh | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 19.8% | 26.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.