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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+3.92vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.18+1.89vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.09+4.17vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.73+1.40vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.42+3.77vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.83+1.94vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.41+5.94vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.06-1.02vs Predicted
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9Boston College1.97-1.17vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.39-3.71vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-2.38vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.07-1.10vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University0.97+0.05vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.07-2.20vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.27-0.72vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering0.22-2.43vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.87-6.41vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy-0.82-1.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92Yale University2.8512.8%1st Place
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3.89Harvard University3.1819.4%1st Place
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7.17Roger Williams University2.096.2%1st Place
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5.4Brown University2.7312.6%1st Place
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8.77University of Rhode Island1.424.6%1st Place
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7.94Tufts University1.835.1%1st Place
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12.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.411.0%1st Place
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6.98Bowdoin College2.067.5%1st Place
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7.83Boston College1.975.5%1st Place
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6.29Dartmouth College2.398.3%1st Place
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8.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.585.2%1st Place
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10.9Northeastern University1.072.0%1st Place
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13.05Salve Regina University0.971.6%1st Place
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11.8Boston University1.072.5%1st Place
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14.28Connecticut College0.270.8%1st Place
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13.57Olin College of Engineering0.221.1%1st Place
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10.59University of Vermont0.873.2%1st Place
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16.08Maine Maritime Academy-0.820.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 12.8% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 19.4% | 18.1% | 14.8% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.6% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Julian Henderson | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 7.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 15.5% | 12.4% | 8.6% |
| Porter Bell | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 3.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 20.8% | 16.7% |
| James Jagielski | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 12.7% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Isaac Thompson | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 17.7% | 48.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.