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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College1.50+4.25vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.74+2.64vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.49+5.16vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.77+0.56vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.37+0.50vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College0.36+2.29vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.38-1.53vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.33-2.30vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.23+0.85vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.29-4.19vs Predicted
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11Amherst College-0.09-1.61vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-5.38vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-1.24-1.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.25Connecticut College1.500.1%1st Place
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4.64Tufts University1.740.1%1st Place
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8.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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4.56Webb Institute1.770.2%1st Place
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5.5Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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8.29Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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5.47University of Vermont1.380.1%1st Place
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5.7University of Rhode Island1.330.1%1st Place
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9.85SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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5.81Roger Williams University1.290.1%1st Place
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9.39Amherst College-0.090.0%1st Place
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6.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.1%1st Place
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11.78University of Michigan-1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Scholz | 11.7% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Devon Owen | 13.2% | 14.6% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Allison Nystrom | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% |
| Calvin Schmid | 15.7% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Lilly Saffer | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 13.7% | 4.2% |
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 12.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Adam Strobridge | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 1.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 16.3% | 26.2% | 15.5% |
| Jakub Fuja | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Nat Edmonds | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 18.8% | 16.8% | 13.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 7.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Alexander Manthous | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 16.6% | 60.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.