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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+5.37vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.77+2.57vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.37+2.64vs Predicted
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4Amherst College-0.09+5.61vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.33+0.65vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.74-1.45vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.38-1.53vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.49-0.01vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.50-3.71vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.36-1.67vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.23-1.25vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University1.29-6.01vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-1.24-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.1%1st Place
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4.57Webb Institute1.770.1%1st Place
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5.64Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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9.61Amherst College-0.090.0%1st Place
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5.65University of Rhode Island1.330.1%1st Place
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4.55Tufts University1.740.2%1st Place
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5.47University of Vermont1.380.1%1st Place
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7.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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5.29Connecticut College1.500.1%1st Place
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8.33Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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9.75SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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5.99Roger Williams University1.290.1%1st Place
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11.77University of Michigan-1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed McAllister | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
| Calvin Schmid | 13.9% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Nat Edmonds | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 15.9% | 22.3% | 14.2% |
| Adam Strobridge | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Devon Owen | 15.7% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Alvaro Nadal-Alvarez | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Allison Nystrom | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 3.5% |
| Henry Scholz | 11.4% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Lilly Saffer | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 5.6% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 17.0% | 21.5% | 15.7% |
| Jakub Fuja | 9.0% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Alexander Manthous | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 18.4% | 58.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.