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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+3.01vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+2.73vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.09+4.50vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.73+1.43vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.42+3.74vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+1.26vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.83+1.19vs Predicted
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8Boston College1.97+0.03vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University0.97+4.15vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58-1.25vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.07+0.26vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.39-5.65vs Predicted
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13Olin College of Engineering0.22+0.78vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.41-0.86vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.87-4.04vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy-0.82+0.16vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.07-4.81vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.89-6.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.01Harvard University3.1819.1%1st Place
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4.73Yale University2.8513.9%1st Place
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7.5Roger Williams University2.096.0%1st Place
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5.43Brown University2.7311.7%1st Place
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8.74University of Rhode Island1.424.4%1st Place
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7.26Bowdoin College2.066.8%1st Place
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8.19Tufts University1.835.5%1st Place
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8.03Boston College1.975.9%1st Place
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13.15Salve Regina University0.971.4%1st Place
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8.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.4%1st Place
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11.26Northeastern University1.072.3%1st Place
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6.35Dartmouth College2.398.8%1st Place
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13.78Olin College of Engineering0.220.7%1st Place
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13.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.411.4%1st Place
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10.96University of Vermont0.872.9%1st Place
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16.16Maine Maritime Academy-0.820.4%1st Place
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12.19Boston University1.072.0%1st Place
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11.37Connecticut College0.892.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 19.1% | 18.6% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 13.9% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.7% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Peter Joslin | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 15.4% | 10.4% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 2.2% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Jagielski | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 19.4% | 13.2% |
| Julian Henderson | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 16.1% | 8.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
| Isaac Thompson | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 54.9% |
| Porter Bell | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 4.9% |
| Henry Scholz | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 2.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.