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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+3.84vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+3.30vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.83+5.17vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.58+4.86vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.18-1.01vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.09+1.31vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.06+0.18vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.87+3.04vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.42-0.06vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.39-3.57vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.07+0.04vs Predicted
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12Olin College of Engineering0.22+1.59vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.07-0.94vs Predicted
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14Boston College1.97-6.07vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.89-3.41vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University0.97-2.81vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.41-3.73vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy-0.82-1.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.84Yale University2.8514.2%1st Place
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5.3Brown University2.7311.8%1st Place
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8.17Tufts University1.835.5%1st Place
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8.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.584.0%1st Place
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3.99Harvard University3.1820.1%1st Place
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7.31Roger Williams University2.096.9%1st Place
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7.18Bowdoin College2.067.3%1st Place
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11.04University of Vermont0.872.3%1st Place
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8.94University of Rhode Island1.424.0%1st Place
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6.43Dartmouth College2.398.2%1st Place
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11.04Northeastern University1.072.2%1st Place
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13.59Olin College of Engineering0.221.0%1st Place
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12.06Boston University1.072.0%1st Place
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7.93Boston College1.975.8%1st Place
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11.59Connecticut College0.891.9%1st Place
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13.19Salve Regina University0.971.2%1st Place
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13.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.411.1%1st Place
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16.27Maine Maritime Academy-0.820.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 14.2% | 14.1% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.8% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Justin Callahan | 20.1% | 16.4% | 15.6% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 1.8% |
| James Jagielski | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 18.4% | 12.7% |
| Porter Bell | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 4.5% |
| Peter Joslin | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Henry Scholz | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 3.2% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
| Julian Henderson | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 10.6% |
| Isaac Thompson | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 54.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.