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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.90+3.82vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University-1.16+3.46vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine-1.52+3.72vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.33-0.57vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University-1.81+2.80vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-1.70+1.39vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-1.95+1.21vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-1.45vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-2.36+0.56vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-0.43vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-2.19-1.94vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-2.95-0.31vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-2.70-2.09vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56-3.79vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-2.08-6.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.82University of California at Santa Cruz-0.900.1%1st Place
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5.46Arizona State University-1.160.1%1st Place
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6.72University of California at Irvine-1.520.1%1st Place
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3.43University of California at Santa Cruz-0.330.2%1st Place
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7.8Arizona State University-1.810.1%1st Place
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7.39University of California at Irvine-1.700.1%1st Place
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8.21University of California at San Diego-1.950.1%1st Place
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6.55Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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9.56University of California at San Diego-2.360.0%1st Place
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9.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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9.06University of California at Davis-2.190.0%1st Place
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11.69California State University Monterey Bay-2.950.0%1st Place
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10.91University of California at Irvine-2.700.0%1st Place
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10.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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8.62California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Meyers | 14.4% | 14.3% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Down | 10.3% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Emma Feasey | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Hunter Holguin | 24.0% | 20.5% | 15.3% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailly | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Laurence Mach | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Grace Richie | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% |
| Colin Thompson | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 8.8% |
| Juliette Cramer | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% |
| Daniel Haberland | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 16.7% | 27.4% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 19.2% |
| Dylan Tran | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 14.2% |
| Brent Lin | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.