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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.90+3.65vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University-1.16+3.33vs Predicted
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3University of California at Davis-2.19+5.84vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine-1.52+2.58vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.33-1.58vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-1.81+1.60vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-2.36+2.40vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09+0.54vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34+0.34vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-1.95-1.87vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-2.95+0.35vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-1.70-4.54vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56-2.63vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-2.70-3.50vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-2.08-6.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.65University of California at Santa Cruz-0.900.1%1st Place
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5.33Arizona State University-1.160.1%1st Place
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8.84University of California at Davis-2.190.0%1st Place
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6.58University of California at Irvine-1.520.1%1st Place
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3.42University of California at Santa Cruz-0.330.2%1st Place
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7.6Arizona State University-1.810.0%1st Place
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9.4University of California at San Diego-2.360.0%1st Place
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8.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
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9.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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8.13University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
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11.35California State University Monterey Bay-2.950.0%1st Place
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7.46University of California at Irvine-1.700.1%1st Place
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10.37Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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10.5University of California at Irvine-2.700.0%1st Place
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8.49California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Meyers | 14.6% | 15.6% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Down | 11.5% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Juliette Cramer | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% |
| Emma Feasey | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Hunter Holguin | 24.7% | 18.4% | 17.2% | 13.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bailly | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Grace Richie | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 4.3% |
| Colin Thompson | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% |
| Laurence Mach | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| Daniel Haberland | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 28.3% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Dylan Tran | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 15.2% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 14.2% | 16.6% |
| Brent Lin | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.