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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.33+2.34vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University-1.81+5.42vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University-1.16+2.38vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-2.19+4.85vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-1.70+2.35vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.90-1.32vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-1.52-0.44vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09+0.60vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-1.95-1.02vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-2.36-0.46vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-1.60vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56-1.58vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-2.70-2.25vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-2.95-2.72vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-2.08-6.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34University of California at Santa Cruz-0.330.3%1st Place
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7.42Arizona State University-1.810.1%1st Place
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5.38Arizona State University-1.160.1%1st Place
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8.85University of California at Davis-2.190.0%1st Place
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7.35University of California at Irvine-1.700.1%1st Place
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4.68University of California at Santa Cruz-0.900.1%1st Place
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6.56University of California at Irvine-1.520.1%1st Place
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8.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
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7.98University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
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9.54University of California at San Diego-2.360.0%1st Place
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9.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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10.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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10.75University of California at Irvine-2.700.0%1st Place
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11.28California State University Monterey Bay-2.950.0%1st Place
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8.46California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Holguin | 26.6% | 22.1% | 14.1% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bailly | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Andrew Down | 11.6% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Juliette Cramer | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 6.2% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Sophia Meyers | 13.8% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 14.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Emma Feasey | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| lucas kaemmerer | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% |
| Laurence Mach | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% |
| Grace Richie | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% |
| Colin Thompson | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.4% |
| Dylan Tran | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 15.1% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 18.8% |
| Daniel Haberland | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 24.8% |
| Brent Lin | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.