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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.90+3.78vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz-0.33+1.34vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University-1.16+2.50vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-2.19+4.98vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46+1.68vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-1.81+1.78vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands-2.08+1.66vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-1.95+0.25vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine-1.52-2.29vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-1.70-2.52vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine-2.70-0.28vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-2.36-2.16vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-2.95-1.44vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-4.52vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56-4.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.78University of California at Santa Cruz-0.900.2%1st Place
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3.34University of California at Santa Cruz-0.330.3%1st Place
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5.5Arizona State University-1.160.1%1st Place
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8.98University of California at Davis-2.190.0%1st Place
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6.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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7.78Arizona State University-1.810.0%1st Place
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8.66California State University Channel Islands-2.080.1%1st Place
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8.25University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
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6.71University of California at Irvine-1.520.1%1st Place
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7.48University of California at Irvine-1.700.1%1st Place
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10.72University of California at Irvine-2.700.0%1st Place
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9.84University of California at San Diego-2.360.0%1st Place
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11.56California State University Monterey Bay-2.950.0%1st Place
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9.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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10.23Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Meyers | 15.5% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Hunter Holguin | 25.9% | 21.1% | 14.1% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Down | 10.4% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Juliette Cramer | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 6.5% |
| Nathan Briar | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| William Bailly | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Brent Lin | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.0% |
| Laurence Mach | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Emma Feasey | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 15.7% | 18.8% |
| Grace Richie | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.2% |
| Daniel Haberland | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 16.3% | 27.8% |
| Colin Thompson | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.6% |
| Dylan Tran | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 13.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.