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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz-0.33+2.41vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine-1.70+5.18vs Predicted
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3University of California at Davis-2.19+5.96vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46+2.58vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.90-0.07vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-1.95+2.24vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-1.52-0.27vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-2.36+1.62vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine-2.70+1.70vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-1.81-2.20vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.16-5.30vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-2.26vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56-2.54vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-2.08-5.35vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay-2.95-3.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.41University of California at Santa Cruz-0.330.3%1st Place
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7.18University of California at Irvine-1.700.1%1st Place
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8.96University of California at Davis-2.190.0%1st Place
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6.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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4.93University of California at Santa Cruz-0.900.1%1st Place
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8.24University of California at San Diego-1.950.0%1st Place
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6.73University of California at Irvine-1.520.1%1st Place
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9.62University of California at San Diego-2.360.0%1st Place
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10.7University of California at Irvine-2.700.0%1st Place
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7.8Arizona State University-1.810.0%1st Place
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5.7Arizona State University-1.160.1%1st Place
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9.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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10.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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8.65California State University Channel Islands-2.080.0%1st Place
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11.28California State University Monterey Bay-2.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Holguin | 26.3% | 20.2% | 14.6% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 6.0% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Juliette Cramer | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 5.6% |
| Nathan Briar | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Sophia Meyers | 14.8% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Laurence Mach | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.3% |
| Emma Feasey | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Grace Richie | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 9.7% |
| Ryan Gedminas | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 16.9% |
| William Bailly | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Andrew Down | 10.0% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Colin Thompson | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 9.0% |
| Dylan Tran | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 17.1% |
| Brent Lin | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% |
| Daniel Haberland | 1.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 26.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.