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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+1.08vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University-2.52+6.50vs Predicted
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3University of California at Davis-2.68+5.96vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-1.96+2.77vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-2.29+2.63vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-1.53-0.59vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-2.45+0.10vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-2.31-1.18vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-1.66-4.05vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14-3.74vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-2.22-4.71vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.36-4.92vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay-2.05-7.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.08University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.5%1st Place
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8.5Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
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8.96University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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6.77University of California at San Diego-1.960.0%1st Place
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7.63University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
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5.41University of California at Irvine-1.530.1%1st Place
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8.1Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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7.82University of California at San Diego-2.310.0%1st Place
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5.95University of California at Santa Cruz-1.660.1%1st Place
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7.26Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.1%1st Place
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7.29University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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8.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.360.0%1st Place
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7.16California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Baker-Berry | 46.3% | 25.6% | 13.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 14.6% |
| Nathan Baer | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 18.8% |
| Adem Evecek | 4.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% |
| Mason Read | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Brayden Money | 9.2% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Mason Norwood | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 11.5% |
| Bella Valente | 3.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 10.0% |
| Christopher Farago | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Daniel Gates | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% |
| Matthew Stank | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% |
| Griffin Vernon | 2.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.8% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 4.2% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.