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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.73+4.17vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+6.21vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.39+3.08vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.29+2.35vs Predicted
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5Harvard University3.18-1.25vs Predicted
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6Boston College1.97+1.82vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University0.97+5.85vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.06-1.10vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+3.02vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.07+1.77vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.09-3.93vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.07-1.29vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.87-2.41vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.83-6.30vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.27-0.91vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island1.42-7.42vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering-0.92-0.95vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy-0.33-2.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.17Brown University2.7312.8%1st Place
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8.21Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.455.1%1st Place
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6.08Dartmouth College2.3910.2%1st Place
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6.35Yale University2.298.5%1st Place
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3.75Harvard University3.1821.3%1st Place
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7.82Boston College1.975.5%1st Place
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12.85Salve Regina University0.971.3%1st Place
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6.9Bowdoin College2.067.3%1st Place
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12.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.081.6%1st Place
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11.77Boston University1.072.1%1st Place
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7.07Roger Williams University2.097.8%1st Place
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10.71Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
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10.59University of Vermont0.871.9%1st Place
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7.7Tufts University1.835.5%1st Place
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14.09Connecticut College0.270.9%1st Place
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8.58University of Rhode Island1.425.2%1st Place
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16.05Olin College of Engineering-0.920.2%1st Place
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15.27Maine Maritime Academy-0.330.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 12.8% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 21.3% | 19.6% | 14.8% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 6.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 3.0% |
| Porter Bell | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 2.5% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 16.9% | 18.6% | 13.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Rohan Shah | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 20.5% | 45.1% |
| Nathan Hyde | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 15.6% | 21.8% | 27.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.