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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+1.07vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University-2.52+6.52vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine-2.29+5.05vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-2.31+4.12vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis-2.68+4.36vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-1.53-0.30vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14+0.21vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-1.96-1.08vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine-2.22-1.14vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-2.45-1.39vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-2.34-2.75vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-2.53vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.27-6.13vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay-2.05-7.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.07University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.5%1st Place
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8.52Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
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8.05University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
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8.12University of California at San Diego-2.310.0%1st Place
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9.36University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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5.7University of California at Irvine-1.530.1%1st Place
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7.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.1%1st Place
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6.92University of California at San Diego-1.960.1%1st Place
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7.86University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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8.61Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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8.25University of California at Santa Cruz-2.340.0%1st Place
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9.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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7.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.270.0%1st Place
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7.01California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Baker-Berry | 46.7% | 26.2% | 13.7% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 2.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% |
| Mason Read | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 6.7% |
| Bella Valente | 2.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% |
| Nathan Baer | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 15.7% |
| Brayden Money | 8.2% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Gates | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% |
| Adem Evecek | 5.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% |
| Matthew Stank | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% |
| Mason Norwood | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% |
| Maximus Suh | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% |
| Paul Munsell | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 18.4% |
| Kyle Hirth | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.