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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+1.14vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University-2.52+6.59vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine-2.29+4.92vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine-1.53+1.65vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-1.96+1.79vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-1.66-0.05vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-2.45+0.17vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine-2.22-1.39vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-2.68-0.91vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14-4.61vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-2.05-6.12vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-4.78vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.46-9.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.14University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.4%1st Place
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8.59Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
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7.92University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
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5.65University of California at Irvine-1.530.1%1st Place
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6.79University of California at San Diego-1.960.1%1st Place
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5.95University of California at Santa Cruz-1.660.1%1st Place
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8.17Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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7.61University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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9.09University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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7.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.1%1st Place
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6.88California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.1%1st Place
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9.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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5.59University of California at San Diego-1.460.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Baker-Berry | 44.0% | 25.6% | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 13.3% |
| Mason Read | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% |
| Brayden Money | 7.5% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Adem Evecek | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% |
| Christopher Farago | 7.4% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| Mason Norwood | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 11.1% |
| Matthew Stank | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% |
| Nathan Baer | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 21.1% |
| Daniel Gates | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 6.1% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% |
| Paul Munsell | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 15.1% | 21.1% |
| Alex Bussey | 6.4% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.