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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Arizona State University-2.52+7.52vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine-1.53+3.62vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.17-0.83vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine-2.22+3.64vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-2.29+1.76vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-1.96-0.16vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-1.66-2.06vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-2.45-0.73vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14-2.50vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-2.05-3.91vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.46-6.76vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-4.75vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.68-5.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.52Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
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5.62University of California at Irvine-1.530.1%1st Place
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2.17University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.4%1st Place
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7.64University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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7.76University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
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6.84University of California at San Diego-1.960.1%1st Place
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5.94University of California at Santa Cruz-1.660.1%1st Place
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8.27Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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7.5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.0%1st Place
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7.09California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.1%1st Place
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5.24University of California at San Diego-1.460.1%1st Place
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9.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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9.16University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Prendiville | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 13.4% |
| Brayden Money | 7.4% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Devon Baker-Berry | 44.9% | 24.0% | 14.9% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Stank | 3.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% |
| Mason Read | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% |
| Adem Evecek | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.8% |
| Christopher Farago | 7.5% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Mason Norwood | 2.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Daniel Gates | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| Alex Bussey | 8.0% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Paul Munsell | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 20.1% |
| Nathan Baer | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 18.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.