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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+1.16vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine-1.53+3.54vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14+4.73vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.27+4.17vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University-2.45+3.82vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-2.34+2.46vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73+2.34vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-2.52+0.88vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-2.05-1.47vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-2.29-1.69vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.46-5.31vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-2.68-2.51vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-2.22-5.11vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.96-8.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.16University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.5%1st Place
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5.54University of California at Irvine-1.530.1%1st Place
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7.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.0%1st Place
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8.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.270.0%1st Place
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8.82Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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8.46University of California at Santa Cruz-2.340.0%1st Place
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9.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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8.88Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
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7.53California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.0%1st Place
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8.31University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
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5.69University of California at San Diego-1.460.1%1st Place
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9.49University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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7.89University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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6.99University of California at San Diego-1.960.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Baker-Berry | 45.8% | 24.6% | 13.8% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Money | 8.4% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Daniel Gates | 4.8% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% |
| Kyle Hirth | 2.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% |
| Mason Norwood | 2.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.4% |
| Maximus Suh | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% |
| Paul Munsell | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 15.8% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 12.5% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.9% |
| Mason Read | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 6.3% |
| Alex Bussey | 7.9% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Nathan Baer | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 16.9% |
| Matthew Stank | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% |
| Adem Evecek | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.