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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.17+1.17vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine-1.53+3.53vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.27+5.16vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-1.46+1.62vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-2.34+3.51vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.14+1.83vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University-2.52+1.67vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-2.22-0.08vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-2.68+0.51vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-2.29-1.69vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.96-3.75vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-2.39vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-2.05-6.67vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-2.45-6.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.17University of California at Santa Cruz0.170.5%1st Place
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5.53University of California at Irvine-1.530.1%1st Place
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8.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.270.0%1st Place
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5.62University of California at San Diego-1.460.1%1st Place
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8.51University of California at Santa Cruz-2.340.0%1st Place
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7.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.140.0%1st Place
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8.67Arizona State University-2.520.0%1st Place
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7.92University of California at Irvine-2.220.0%1st Place
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9.51University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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8.31University of California at Irvine-2.290.0%1st Place
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7.25University of California at San Diego-1.960.0%1st Place
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9.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
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7.33California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.0%1st Place
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8.59Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Baker-Berry | 46.1% | 23.0% | 14.7% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Money | 8.5% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Kyle Hirth | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% |
| Alex Bussey | 6.7% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Maximus Suh | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% |
| Daniel Gates | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% |
| Matthew Prendiville | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 11.0% |
| Matthew Stank | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% |
| Nathan Baer | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 15.6% |
| Mason Read | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 6.0% |
| Adem Evecek | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| Paul Munsell | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 18.3% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% |
| Mason Norwood | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.