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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.47+3.28vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.67+1.76vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.35+4.47vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.75-0.27vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+2.04vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.18+2.12vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.42-0.01vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+0.47vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine-0.01-0.41vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.90+1.09vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.97+0.20vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California-0.27-2.66vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis-0.43-3.38vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-8.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.28University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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3.76University of Southern California1.670.2%1st Place
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7.47University of California at Santa Cruz0.350.1%1st Place
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3.73California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.2%1st Place
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7.04University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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8.12University of California at San Diego0.180.0%1st Place
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6.99California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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8.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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8.59University of California at Irvine-0.010.0%1st Place
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11.09Arizona State University-0.900.0%1st Place
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11.2University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
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9.34University of Southern California-0.270.0%1st Place
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9.62University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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5.3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 14.9% | 16.7% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Davis Winsor | 20.3% | 17.9% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Ring | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 19.2% | 19.2% | 14.2% | 15.7% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 3.3% |
| Sterling Maggard | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Samuel Groom | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 6.3% |
| Adam Leddy | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 4.8% |
| Mitchell Powers | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 16.8% | 28.7% |
| Andrew Keller | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 17.3% | 31.9% |
| Jackson McKinley | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.1% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 15.2% | 10.2% |
| Garrett Henderson | 11.1% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.