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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.48+1.64vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.65+2.16vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02+1.88vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California-0.10+1.00vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49-1.52vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine0.27-1.98vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-1.13+0.50vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands-0.84-1.10vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-1.24-1.00vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.07-2.49vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98-3.87vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy-1.06-4.35vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.98-1.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.64University of Southern California1.480.3%1st Place
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4.16University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.2%1st Place
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5.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.1%1st Place
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6.0University of Southern California-0.100.1%1st Place
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4.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.1%1st Place
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5.02University of California at Irvine0.270.1%1st Place
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8.5University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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7.9California State University Channel Islands-0.840.0%1st Place
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9.0Arizona State University-1.240.0%1st Place
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8.51University of California at San Diego-1.070.0%1st Place
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8.13University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.0%1st Place
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8.65California Poly Maritime Academy-1.060.0%1st Place
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12.13University of California at Davis-2.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hudson Mayfield | 32.4% | 24.3% | 17.9% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 15.1% | 14.4% | 16.3% | 12.5% | 14.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Edward Ansart | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Jack Kisling | 13.1% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Arin Bekem | 10.8% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 16.1% | 14.9% | 4.6% |
| Brandon Stadtherr | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 2.1% |
| Gavin Hirz | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 19.5% | 6.5% |
| Sean Lipps | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 5.9% |
| Lucas Elliott | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 3.8% |
| Christopher Shintani | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 16.4% | 4.6% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 11.0% | 71.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.