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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.73+4.20vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.18+1.79vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.83+4.97vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.29+2.12vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.39+1.12vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.87+4.68vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.09+0.15vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+0.21vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.06-2.04vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.07+1.76vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+0.97vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.42-3.37vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.27+0.88vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.07-3.21vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University0.97-2.21vs Predicted
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16Boston College1.97-8.24vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering-0.92-0.97vs Predicted
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18Maine Maritime Academy-0.33-2.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.2Brown University2.7313.1%1st Place
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3.79Harvard University3.1821.1%1st Place
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7.97Tufts University1.835.3%1st Place
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6.12Yale University2.299.2%1st Place
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6.12Dartmouth College2.399.4%1st Place
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10.68University of Vermont0.872.8%1st Place
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7.15Roger Williams University2.097.4%1st Place
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8.21Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.9%1st Place
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6.96Bowdoin College2.066.9%1st Place
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11.76Boston University1.071.9%1st Place
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11.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.2%1st Place
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8.63University of Rhode Island1.424.5%1st Place
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13.88Connecticut College0.270.7%1st Place
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10.79Northeastern University1.072.2%1st Place
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12.79Salve Regina University0.971.6%1st Place
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7.76Boston College1.975.8%1st Place
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16.03Olin College of Engineering-0.920.4%1st Place
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15.21Maine Maritime Academy-0.330.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 13.1% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 21.1% | 18.4% | 15.0% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Porter Bell | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 2.8% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 3.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 17.2% | 17.0% | 11.5% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 0.7% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 6.3% |
| Peter Joslin | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Rohan Shah | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 20.4% | 46.2% |
| Nathan Hyde | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 24.2% | 28.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.