Race 5A

women-new-england-fleet-race

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Caroline Sibilly 10.0% 9.7% 10.6% 10.8% 10.4% 9.6% 8.2% 8.3% 6.0% 5.2% 5.3% 3.4% 1.9% 0.5%
Emily Bornarth 4.5% 5.9% 7.2% 7.2% 7.1% 6.9% 8.0% 8.6% 8.0% 8.9% 8.9% 8.2% 7.5% 3.2%
Carmen Cowles 24.6% 18.1% 16.5% 12.3% 8.5% 6.2% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Brooke Schmelz 7.3% 9.0% 8.8% 8.0% 9.2% 8.2% 8.5% 8.3% 8.8% 7.4% 6.6% 5.1% 3.5% 1.2%
Taylor Eastman 6.2% 6.5% 6.4% 6.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.0% 6.3% 8.3% 9.1% 8.4% 7.9% 6.2% 3.3%
Brielle Willoughby 9.8% 10.7% 9.2% 9.6% 9.4% 9.0% 9.0% 7.8% 7.8% 6.0% 5.1% 3.6% 2.1% 0.9%
Kyra Phelan 5.1% 6.4% 4.7% 6.6% 6.5% 6.9% 7.4% 7.2% 8.8% 8.6% 8.9% 9.3% 9.0% 4.7%
Tiare Sierra 4.5% 4.2% 5.1% 5.0% 6.0% 6.9% 5.8% 8.1% 7.4% 9.3% 9.5% 9.8% 12.0% 6.5%
Haley Andreasen 3.8% 3.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.2% 4.8% 5.8% 6.1% 6.5% 7.2% 8.9% 11.8% 14.8% 13.2%
Lucy Meagher 8.8% 8.1% 8.8% 7.5% 8.5% 9.7% 8.1% 9.6% 7.8% 7.2% 5.9% 5.4% 3.2% 1.5%
Cordelia Burn 6.3% 6.8% 7.5% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.4% 8.6% 7.1% 7.1% 6.9% 4.7% 2.1%
Eva Ermlich 4.9% 4.2% 4.5% 6.0% 6.6% 6.8% 8.2% 8.3% 7.3% 10.2% 9.4% 9.4% 9.1% 5.1%
Kytalin Hendrickson 3.2% 5.1% 4.5% 5.2% 4.7% 5.7% 6.9% 6.2% 7.2% 7.8% 9.0% 10.4% 13.4% 10.6%
Izzy Wu-Karr 1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 2.9% 4.6% 4.7% 6.2% 8.7% 12.6% 47.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.