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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+6.60vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.97+4.36vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.42+0.47vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College1.51+4.10vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.10+1.82vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+0.25vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.09-1.25vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College1.60-0.55vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.22-0.65vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.33-2.28vs Predicted
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11Tufts University0.69-1.19vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.52+0.35vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.99-3.99vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.14-5.30vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.13-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.036.0%1st Place
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6.36Roger Williams University1.979.2%1st Place
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3.47Yale University2.4224.8%1st Place
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8.1Bowdoin College1.515.3%1st Place
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6.82Harvard University2.106.5%1st Place
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6.25Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.778.5%1st Place
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5.75Boston College2.099.5%1st Place
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7.45Dartmouth College1.605.1%1st Place
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8.35Northeastern University1.223.8%1st Place
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7.72Brown University1.337.1%1st Place
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9.81Tufts University0.693.7%1st Place
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12.35Connecticut College0.521.2%1st Place
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9.01University of Rhode Island0.993.2%1st Place
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8.7Boston University1.144.5%1st Place
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12.25University of Vermont-0.131.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Lucy Meagher | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Carmen Cowles | 24.8% | 19.2% | 16.0% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Phelan | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Cordelia Burn | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Taylor Eastman | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Eva Ermlich | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 2.8% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Samantha Jensen | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 9.7% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 20.0% | 36.8% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 4.7% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 3.8% |
| Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 20.4% | 33.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.