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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.62+3.88vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University1.15+6.45vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.17+0.68vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.01+2.39vs Predicted
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5University of Virginia3.14-1.09vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-2.86vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.20-1.00vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.51-2.77vs Predicted
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9William and Mary0.95+0.03vs Predicted
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10Hampton University0.43+0.29vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute-0.17+0.60vs Predicted
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12American University-1.78+2.14vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.24-4.43vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-0.82-1.26vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University-0.41-3.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.620.1%1st Place
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8.45Christopher Newport University1.150.0%1st Place
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3.68Old Dominion University3.170.2%1st Place
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6.39Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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3.91University of Virginia3.140.2%1st Place
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3.14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.2%1st Place
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6.0Georgetown University2.200.1%1st Place
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5.23Old Dominion University2.510.1%1st Place
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9.03William and Mary0.950.0%1st Place
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10.29Hampton University0.430.0%1st Place
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11.6Webb Institute-0.170.0%1st Place
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14.14American University-1.780.0%1st Place
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8.57George Washington University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.74William and Mary-0.820.0%1st Place
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11.96Christopher Newport University-0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Galster | 12.0% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Buhl | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 15.1% | 12.3% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Evan Hoffmann | 18.8% | 17.3% | 15.5% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Titcomb | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Stokes | 15.9% | 16.4% | 17.2% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 24.1% | 21.5% | 17.3% | 14.3% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Andril | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Spracher | 8.2% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diana Kong-Wasielewski | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 15.2% | 16.6% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Ian Guagliardo | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 15.8% | 20.0% | 13.4% | 6.4% | 1.3% |
| Troy Zangle | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 15.6% | 21.2% | 17.5% | 7.5% |
| Nicholas Pilipowskyj | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 9.0% | 16.7% | 64.7% |
| Alex Hitchcock | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 14.9% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Girolama Bui | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 18.2% | 30.7% | 18.0% |
| Kira Munger | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 16.6% | 21.5% | 24.0% | 8.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.